Indian political scenario






There is great  euphoria in Bengal about the victory of the Trinamool Congress - the Grassroots Congress Party.  Winning Bengal would have been a big step for the BJP.  Under British rule, there used to be a saying -  what Bengal thinks today, India  will think tomorrow. 

However, this does not alter the fact that there is no credible challenge to the Bhartiya Janata Party, the so-called Indian People's Party,  at the national level in India.

The country has seen such victories time and again at the state level since 2014, when Modi came to power as Prime Minister. The  BJP has lost elections in the non-Hindi speaking states. But it continues its vice-like grip on the cow-belt - the Hindi heartland. Ii is also in power in Karnataka  - the only South Indian state where it has a footing - and in quite a few North-Eastern states. The BJP is currently in power in twelve states, and shares power in six  other states in coalition with regional parties. 

Sadly, the Indian Congress Party, the only other big pan-India party, is a pale shadow of its former self. The party which led India to independence finds itself marginalized today. Today the party is in power in only three states. In two other states the Congress shares power in coalition governments. 

It plight won't change as long as the Gandhi family is in control of the party. There are quite a few good men in the Congress. But Sonia Gandhi is unlikely to relinquish the reins of the party. So any revival if the Congress looks unlikely during her lifetime.

The map shows the political scenario in India - the saffron states are the ones where the BJP is in power. The blue ones are where the Congress holds sway. The states shaded in red are controlled by other parties. In the north, there is President's rule in Ladakh and Kashmir, which are shaded grey.

India is  moving away from the traditional concept of two or three large national parties to a condition where there is just one powerful party at the national level - the BJP.  The opposition consists of a number of regional parties, each led by a leader who holds sway in his or her state. 

Thus, the only hope for the opposition is to try and sink their differences and form a  United Front - a  Grand Alliance  - at the national level.

Somehow the situation in India today is reminiscent of that which prevailed in the country in the 18th century - there were two large national powers - the Marathas and the Mughal  Empire, which was in terminal decline at the time. Besides these two major forces, there were a number of regional rulers scattered all over the subcontinent.  It was this fragmented polity which allowed a multi-national corporation - the East India Company  - to gain control of the nation.




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